It’s the perfect way to wrap up Week 1 of the 2022 NFL season. On Monday night, new Denver Broncos quarterback Russell Wilson will return to Seattle to face his former Seahawks team. The Broncos are currently on the second-longest active NFL playoff drought, but they expect that to change with an upgrade at quarterback.
Denver leads the all-time series against Seattle 35-21, including the playoffs. The Broncos are also 8-2 in their last 10 season openers, while the Seahawks are looking to win their fourth straight Week 1 game. he home opener was 1999. On paper, the Broncos look like the better team, but in an emotional game like this, you never know what can happen.
Below, we’ll break down this match from a gameplay perspective and look at line movement, Over/Under, and player props to consider. First, here’s how you can watch Monday’s game.
All NFL odds are via Caesars Sportsbook.
How to watch
Date: Monday September 12 | Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
Location: Lumen Field (Seattle, Washington)
TV: ESP | Flow: fuboTV (click here)
Follow: CBS Sports App
Odds: Broncos -6.5, O/U 44
injury report
The Broncos may not have former Cowboys passing pitcher Gregory active for his first game as a Bronco as he is questionable to play with shoulder and knee issues. However, he has been a limited participant in training all week, which could be seen as a positive. Hamler and Turner were also limited attendees all week. Turner is listed as a starter on the offensive line, so he’s definitely someone to watch.
The Seahawks have a few key players listed as questionable for Monday night, as rookie Walker attempts to return from hernia surgery, and Lewis is still working after the frightening leg injury he suffered in pre-season. season. Seattle’s offensive line is a question mark, and Geno Smith would be more comfortable with Lewis in the lineup.
line movement
Latest odds:
Denver Broncos -6.5
The Broncos opened as 3.5-point favorites on May 12. On July 6, the line climbed to DEN -5. On August 21, we saw another big bump up to DEN -6. On Monday, September 5, the line rose half a point to DEN -6.5.
The pick: Broncos -6.5. This game was actually included in my top five picks of the week. Here is my reasoning:
“I’ve thought for years that the Broncos’ roster is worth fighting for. They just haven’t had a good game from the most important position in football since the days of Peyton Manning. With the When Russell Wilson arrives, Denver could be a legitimate team.
“I don’t think the Broncos are going out and winning by 30 points on Monday night. Wilson and first-year head coach Nathaniel Hackett probably need more time to figure each other out before this offense looks like a well-oiled machine. .. but I believe that line is too low. I appreciate Pete Carroll making it sound like he’s excited for his roster, but I don’t think anyone else is.
Over/Under 44
The total opened at 41.5 on May 12. On August 28, it was raised to 42. On September 4, it was raised again to 43. Last Tuesday, it received another increase to 44.
The choice: under 44 years old. You can’t rely on last year’s stats exactly because we have different quarterbacks working on different offenses. I expect Wilson and the Broncos to be contenders, but that doesn’t mean they’ll come out and lose 40+ to Seattle. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Cowboys game was disgusting. Could we see something like this? Not a best bet on my part, but the lean is on the underside.
Russell Wilson Accessories
Touchdowns: 1.5 (more than -133, less than -103)
Passing yards: 253.5 (over -117, under -117)
Overtaking attempts: 33.5 (over -123, under -111)
Handover of completions: 22.5 (over -115, under -119)
Longest pass: 36.5 (over -157, under +114)
Interception: 0.5 (more than +123, less than -169)
I would go ahead and hit that Over on touchdown passes. Like I said, I’m not expecting a shootout, but two touchdowns are, dare I say, likely. I would stay away from passing attempts and completion props in this case for two reasons: The Broncos should win, and we don’t know exactly what that offense will look like. I’m sure Nathaniel Hackett wants to cross his quarterback, but at the same time, Denver has two talented running backs he could use if things got out of hand early on. Wilson throwing an interception more money is tempting, but I won’t play it. He threw six interceptions in 14 games last year.
Geno Smith Accessories
Touchdowns: 1.5 (more than +165, less than -234)
Passing yards: 209.5 (more than -115, less than -119)
Overtaking attempts: 30.5 (over -113, under -121)
Handover of completions: 18.5 (over -113, under -121)
Longest pass: 36.5 (over -111, under -123)
Interception: 0.5 (more than -179, less than +129)
I won’t touch Smith’s touchdown accessory. As for his passing yards, it’s almost like Vegas just pulled him out of his best game last year, when he threw for 209 yards against the Pittsburgh Steelers. I don’t expect Smith to top that number, but if you really want action in Seattle or you’re a Seahawks fan, go ahead and throw some cash at it.
These quarterback props – especially with “new” quarterbacks in new systems – seem a bit silly to bet on Week 1. Still, I will say I like the longest completion of Under on Smith at 36.5.
Player Accessories
Noah Fant’s total receptions: Over 2.5 (-123). This isn’t just a revenge game for Wilson, it’s also one for Fant. The former Bronco tight end wasn’t too fond of his time in Denver. He had problems with the attack and the way the team used it. He’s kind of a menacing down guy, but the Broncos quarterback’s previous issues affected his ceiling. Fant doesn’t exactly have the dream QB scenario in Seattle, but I like that he caught three assists on Monday night.
Rashaad Penny’s total rushing + receiving yards: Under 80.5 (-110). That number just seems a bit inflated to me. I love Penny, although I doubt her durability, but all of her big matches came late in the year. It’s a weird trend that I try not to stress too much about, but if you believe the Broncos are winning this game, I think it’s a good bet.
Melvin Gordon’s rushing yards: Over 37.5 (-131). I like this number. Everyone’s excited for Javonte Williams — and for good reason — but Gordon isn’t minced liver. He crossed that number in 12 of 16 games last year, and if you believe the Broncos will win, that’s even more reason to bet on it.
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